Methodology
The principles behind every label
The exact formula weights are not published here — they change as the system is calibrated. The principles that constrain them do not.
Deterministic where it counts
Scoring, thresholds, and label assignment are computed by fixed, versioned formulas — not left to a model's discretion. The same evidence always produces the same label.
Source independence, not source count
Corroboration is measured by how independent the sources are, not how many outlets ran the story. Syndicated or wire-sourced repeats of the same claim don't count as separate confirmation.
Duplicate resistance
Near-duplicate coverage of the same event is detected and grouped before it can inflate a signal's apparent strength.
Closed-set event classification
Every story is classified into one of a fixed set of event types. There is no open-ended, freeform category that could be quietly stretched to fit anything.
Confidence is explicit
Every label carries a confidence score — Low, Medium, or High — driven by source independence and the amount of corroborating data actually available.
Market confirmation, when available
Price and volume behavior is checked against the story to see whether the market is actually reacting. This confirmation step strengthens a label when it's available and is omitted, not faked, when it isn't.
Portfolio relevance
Signals are weighed against your actual holdings and exposure size, not treated as one-size-fits-all market alerts.
Conservative treatment of missing data
When a required input is missing or thin, the resulting confidence is capped low and the label is biased toward Watch or Healthy — insufficient evidence can never produce Avoid Adding or Opportunity Improving.
Bridge and wrapped-asset treatment
Wrapped or bridged representations of an asset are treated as a proxy for the underlying asset, not as an independent asset with its own signal history — and this treatment is disclosed on the relevant asset sections.
Conservative labels by design
The label set itself has no buy/sell language and no certainty claims built in — the six labels describe a state and a direction, not an instruction.
Outcome calibration
Past label accuracy is tracked internally and used to calibrate how the system labels future signals — this is a backend process during the beta, not yet a feature exposed in the product.
Shadow research is kept separate
Experimental scoring changes are tested against historical data internally before ever affecting a label you see — nothing untested reaches a live brief.
Read this before you rely on anything
Honest limitations
- Market confirmation may be unavailable for a given story or window — when that happens, the brief discloses it rather than presenting an unconfirmed reaction as fact.
- Some labels are backed by a single independent source when that is all that exists at the time — the confidence score reflects this, it isn't hidden.
- Absence of a negative signal is never treated as safety — a Healthy label means no material signal was found, not that none exists.
- Nothing on this page or in the product is investment advice or a trade recommendation.
- Historical backtesting of this methodology is limited — the system has been in active use for a short period, and past behavior is not a guarantee of future accuracy.